Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has been busy prepping the Windows 7 replacement for Windows Vista, and it’s finally here in beta. Programmers are saying the new OS fixes a lot of Vista’s well-known issues, and it’s also optimized for the emerging disruptive patterns in the market: the trend to cloud services and Web apps, and snowballing enterprise mobility adoption via lightweight devices. But with an estimated launch date of early 2010, will Windows 7 be too little, too late to prevent Microsoft from feeling the first tingle of tech leprosy: a.k.a., obsolescence?
Consider: A number of IT departments are sitting Vista out, that’s no secret. In fact, according to a six-month Forrester Research survey of 50,000 users in 2,300 large to very large enterprises, only 8.8 percent of Windows users are running Vista so far. A full 87.1 percent of them are instead running Windows XP.
And rather than waiting for Windows 7, many businesses are turning to alternatives to accomplish their business operations goals. As of December, Apple Inc.’s (AAPL) Mac OS X was nearing an unprecedented near-10 percent of the OS market, a big jump from the 7.3 percent sliver it had one year ago, according to industry watcher NetApplications.
Meanwhile many IT departments also are looking to adopt hosted IP services and SaaS offerings, which don’t require an upgrade to the expensive and difficult to manage Vista. This is a way to provide the latest enterprise productivity and unified communications applications now — apps that have come into critical focus as the economy spirals as a way to make a company more efficient. And 2009 — a Windows 7-less year — will see this reaching critical mass, according to analysts.
“The cloud model offers a much cheaper way for businesses to acquire and use IT - in an economic downturn, the appeal of that cost advantage will be greatly magnified,” said Frank Gens, senior vice president and chief analyst at IDC.
Meanwhile, the burgeoning netbook/mini mobile device market is turning out to be a big story for the coming year. They trade in the processor power, substantial memory and graphics horsepower of a traditional laptop for lower price tag and a focus on Web applications. And according to Citigroup, netbooks will make up a third of all PC growth this year, and shipments will grow at an annual average rate of 60 percent — compared to an 18 percent growth for laptops, according to BNP Paribas.
Windows Vista, though, can’t operate on the lightweight devices; only Windows XP is lightweight enough. XP is the only MS operating system compatible with netbooks. And so rather than wait for Windows 7, or go with an OS that’s ancient in tech years, market leaders Acer Inc. and Asustek Computer Inc. (they make up 90 percent of the netbook market) have gone with Linux for about a third of their offerings—giving the open-source stack a significant ground-floor market share and greater visibility to enterprise IT.
And so the question really is, will Microsoft sit around and let Apple, Linux and SaaS providers eat away at its dominance in the comms market for the next 12 months or so, risking being seen as somewhat of a dinosaur while it’s at it? Or will it accelerate its rollout schedule for Windows 7 to jump into these new opportunities in mobility and Web-delivered services?
As of the time of posting, Microsoft isn’t saying.
