Big changes are happening in the IP world, thanks mostly to the reality of mobile broadband. That’s the word from Stéphane Téral, principal analyst with Infonetics. In this edited transcript from our sister publication, VON, Téral talks about 2010’s impact on the growth of Internet mobility and opportunities for U.S. service providers overseas.
In general, what’s a top IP trend we’ll see in 2010?
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| Infonetics' Stéphane Téral |
Stéphane Téral: Mobile infrastructure. There’s a lot going on with mobile broadband – it’s really happening, say with AT&T’s iPhone and with Google now unveiling a phone. This is where IP is going. There’s a major shift going on with mobile Internet that really started when the iPhone was launched. It’s very interesting.
Talk more about Google’s phone and the impact that will have.
ST: It has the potential to change the game but it remains to be seen how Google will sell that phone. The operator is controlling the entire process of acquiring handsets. Will Google subsidize the handsets? We don’t know. They don’t have the mobile infrastructure – the operator has more control over the subscriber. On the fixed line, you’re a number. In the mobile world, you’re a terminal and that means there might be several terminals attached to your name, and that is moving. And that’s why you have people like Tiger Woods caught with a bunch of interesting SMS messages – everything is stored somewhere in the mobile infrastructure and is very easy to retrieve. So how Google can actually penetrate that world successfully remains to be seen. Lots of things have changed suddenly in the mobile world.
What about developments in IP technology?
ST: We have been talking about IP for a very long time now, so, a decade later, we can ask, where are we? We are reaching the IP world. The development now is more on the applications side than on products. What we see is IPv6 as the major protocol for all mobile networks of the future. The mobile world is basically where we’re going.
As of 2010, the train has left the station for the IP-ization of network. The major development is IP architectures, collapsing different pieces to have a flatter architecture and a simplified network and this is known as LTE and WiMAX. These are the major developments. I see some development on the wireline side in applications, equipment, media servers, but more and more we’re moving to mobile.
One thing I didn’t mention is IMS. It’s mainly been used in fixed-line networks for VoIP and it has major implications on how to revamp the infrastructure – so that’s a slow process in the mobile world we’re starting to see. Related to IMS is RCS, or rich communications suite. RCS an attempt to make sure that mobile ops will be in charge of their network. They don’t want Google to rule the game. It’s mainly in Europe right now and Asia, where operators bring the fixed world as you know it, the phone book and yellow pages, into mobile phones so everything is interconnected between e-mail, voice mail, phone service. You can do several things at the same time on your mobile phone.
Speaking of overseas providers, what IP opportunities might U.S.-based operators have in foreign countries?
ST: The best thing for U.S. providers to do is acquire stakes in local companies rather than acquiring the company or forming an alliance. They have learned from past mistakes and are no longer trying to settle down in a given country. But in some countries it’s very tough. In Venezuela, Verizon got kicked out when Hugo Chavez got mad. That’s how tough it is. Now, in India, which is the second-largest market in the world after China, U.S. operators are all looking at buying stakes because they don’t want to get burned by trying to merge and buy companies – there are too many political aspects. In fact, the Chinese and Japanese are doing the same thing so this is a new trend of how to get into the international business. You no longer want to run your own network.
