News out of major carriers and vendors this week demonstrates that the long-awaited advent of 4G mobile broadband, based on the Long Term Evolution (LTE) technology standard, is upon us. Vendors like Huawei, Ericsson, and Nokia Siemens Networks have signed multibillion-dollar deals to build out LTE networks, while carriers are (finally) announcing dates for LTE rollouts.
This news has gladdened service providers, bolstered forecasts for vendors and suppliers, convinced Wall Street to take a fresh look at telecom network investments, and given hope to users that true mobile broadband is, at last, around the corner. A closer look, however, shows that the challenges facing vendors and carriers in bringing 4G to the masses remain steep – and some of the ventures being talked about today may be seen as vaporware in a few years.
Verizon Wireless, which has led the way among North American carriers in pushing forward with its LTE buildout, is now planning a November 15 launch of the 4G service in selected markets, according to Engadget. Citing anonymous sources, the mobile-device blog’s report said that Verizon’s LTE service will include more than 30 markets, including New York City, Los Angeles, Chicago, and Philadelphia, along with 10 airports at launch.
If these reports are true, Verizon will easily beat its main competitors to the punch. AT&T doesn’t expect to start technical trials of LTE until sometime next year.
LTE-enabled devices, however, will not be available until late 2010, at the earliest – and Verizon is said to be planning on instituting tiered pricing plans to accompany the LTE launch. ABI Research forecasts that only 3 percent of handsets will be 4G-enabled by 2014, with WiMAX devices reaching the market before LTE ones. Relying on laptop users to drive traffic and revenue could be a difficult road the hugely expensive LTE networks.
LTE-enabled phones have taken longer than expected to hit shelves, partly because carriers couldn’t agree on exactly how voice calls would be carried on all-IP LTE networks. In March 2009, a degree of resolution on the issue was reached, with the launch of the Voice over LTE via Generic Access (VoLGA) Forum, based on the 3GPP standard, but not all mobile carriers are members of the VoLGA Forum.
What’s more, carriers with ambitious LTE plans are facing network buildouts that involve not just adding cell towers but moving toward a denser architecture with more picocells to ensure high-bandwidth service to buildings in crowded urban areas.
“Coverage won’t be the issue with LTE – capacity will,” wrote John Spindler, vice president of product management for the network solutions group at ADC, in a recent blog post on VON/xchange. “With LTE reaching inside buildings, there will be far denser user populations to be served.”
