2012 Mobile Devices: Peering Into the Crystal Ball

2011 truly was the year of the mobile device. For the first time ever, people started buying smartphones more than feature phones, according to a Nielsen survey. Tablet PCs could be seen everywhere – on the bus, in the doctor's office and on TV. Apple sold more than 11 million iPads in its fiscal fourth quarter alone. 2012 promises to bring more of the same ... and something different.

If you didn't get a bite of Ice Cream Sandwich in 2011, you might in 2012. The latest update (version 4) to Google's Android operating system will begin showing up everywhere in the new year. It debuted on the Samsung Galaxy Nexus smartphone and on a little-known tablet PC from Ainol last fall. An ICS update began rolling out for owners of the Samsung Nexus S just before Christmas. Sony has promised that its Xperia handsets will get the upgrade by early April. Samsung, LG, Motorola and HTC all have said some of their best-known Android offerings will get it in the first half of 2012. Ice Cream Sandwich combines the best of Android's smartphone and tablet operating systems into one cohesive OS. New features include speed and performance enhancements; easier-to-create folders; a customizable launcher; and widget separation.

Perhaps the most compelling smartphone release of the first quarter will be the Samsung Galaxy III. This smartphone, expected to make its first appearance at Mobile World Congress in February, is the follow-up to the wildly successful Galaxy S II, which outsold the iPhone in its first month of release in the U.K. last spring. A Korean website is reporting that the Galaxy S III will be an absolute monster, featuring a quad-core processor, 2GB RAM – that's double the average smartphone – and a 12-megapixel camera. And oh yes, it'll run Android's Ice Cream Sandwich.

2012 will be a make-or-break year for Research In Motion, the embattled BlackBerry maker that has seen its smartphone market share and stock price fall faster than Humpty Dumpty from the wall. All signs point to break. One of the biggest problems is that developers are starting to avoid BlackBerry like the plague – not good in what's become an app-centric universe. RIM announced in December that it was delaying the release of its next-generation BlackBerry 10 line of smartphones until late 2012. That news came the same day that the Canada-based giant said net profit fell 70 percent from the previous quarter. The iPhone and Android handsets have already caught RIM in the enterprise – its traditional foothold – by some estimates. The only real glimmer of hope seems to be in some international markets, where RIM still holds an edge over many of its competitors. At this point, putting itself on the auction block might be the best move, but don't expect that to be imminent. The Wall Street Journal said in December that co-CEO Jim Balsillie wanted to wait to see how BlackBerry 10 devices perform in the market before he has any serious talks with potential buyers. Nokia, Microsoft and Amazon are among the many tech giants that have been rumored to be interested in buying RIM.

Speaking of Nokia and Microsoft, look for the pair's partnership to take off this year. Some analysts estimate that Microsoft's Windows Phone operating system, slated to show up in a new fleet of smartphones from the Finland-based handset manufacturer, could surge into second place in market share as soon as 2015 – passing Apple's iOS, trailing only Android. It wouldn't be unprecedented; it took Android less than three years to blow past Apple and RIM.

At the Nokia World event in October, the company introduced two Windows Phone-powered smartphones: the Lumia 800 and the Lumia 710. The phones haven't hit North America just yet, but are expected to soon. A report surfaced last month that's even better news for Microsoft/Nokia fans: The manufacturer is supposedly testing an LTE version of the Lumia 800 that would be compatible with both AT&T and Verizon's 4G networks. On the tablet front, expect to hear a lot about a Microsoft slate based on its upcoming Windows 8 rollout.

Last but certainly not least is the iPhone. While Apple didn't release what many people were expecting in 2011 – a full-blown, redesigned iPhone 5 – the Silicon Valley giant broke its own sales records nonetheless with the iPhone 4S, an upgrade to its 2010 version that includes the helpful, voice-prompted Siri personal assistant. Two questions will be the focus of iPhone predictions this year. First, when will it be released? (Of course, that's the first question every year.) And second, will it be LTE-compatible?

It's way too early to say when the next iPhone will go on sale, but most of the speculation points to fall 2012, which would be natural since that's one year after the release of the 4S. LTE is really the more interesting topic. Let's put it this way: The iPhone 5 (or whatever it will be called) will be a 4G device, and you can take that to the bank. Development of the 4S began in 2010 before Verizon's LTE network was up and running. AT&T didn't debut its LTE network until late summer. So it's no surprise that Apple took its time. But now that LTE networks are taking shape, and the fact that there are about a dozen LTE phones – from multiple manufacturers – available in the U.S. alone, you can be sure that Apple has LTE in its plans for its next smartphone. In fact, Apple might be able to improve on the technology; some LTE phones have been plagued with battery issues, but power management is beginning to get better and the devices are getting thinner.

Two reports from Asia already have surfaced that connect Apple to LTE. Sources told a Taiwanese tech site that Apple is among several manufacturers planning to "join the LTE club" in 2012. Another story says the company is committed to releasing not only a new iPhone, but a new version of the iPad for Japan's NTT Docomo, on its LTE network.

From Android to Windows Phone to the iPhone, 2012 is shaping up to be another exciting year for gadget nuts, manufacturers and the operators who provide the mobile devices.