Mobile (R)evolution

During the past few weeks, we have witnessed a dramatic shift toward enabling the mobile Web: Google (GOOG), Nokia (NOK) and Research in Motion (RIMM) have all released handsets to compete with the iPhone; Sprint (S) launched its WiMAX-based Xohm network; Virgin Mobile (VM) is releasing an EV-DO handset and service plans that include 50Mb of data; and recent data from the Global Mobile Suppliers Association shows 250 HSPDA networks committed in 105 countries and 70 HSUPA networks deployed or committed in nearly 50 countries.

In addition, a recent Nielsen report shows that mobile devices are rapidly becoming the predominant portal for Web access and entertainment, specifically in developing countries, where fewer people have laptops and televisions. In other words, in these countries, users are more likely to watch videos, play games, and download music via a mobile connection rather than the traditional networks. Even in developed countries, where most of us have multiple TVs and computers, many have quickly experienced the addiction of 3G network speeds, and it didn’t take long to slowly switch our daily tasks to our wireless devices instead of reaching for our laptops.

So what does this all mean for network infrastructure? The first part is obvious. Accommodating the growing number of high-speed broadband mobile devices requires upgrading the radio access network, which is limited not only by the number of connections it can support, but also by the total amount of bandwidth that it can deliver. Many people tend to underestimate the impact of the mobile Web on the over-the-air network, but maybe recent developments surrounding the iPhone give you an idea. On Sept. 17, the Toronto Globe and Mail gave this explanation as to why RIM’s BlackBerry Bold is available in 13 countries, but not the United States: “Both devices use the same next generation (3G) network technology, but it now appears AT&T (T) wasn’t prepared for the bandwidth-hogging Apple (AAPL) device and doesn’t have the resources to launch the Bold until it cures its iPhone issues.”

It is no secret that the iPhone is a bandwidth-intensive device. In fact, a single iPhone can eat up as much bandwidth as 5,000 simultaneous voice calls, and it is not unusual for an iPhone user to consume up to 1 gigabyte of data per month. If sales of 3G phones keep going strong, carriers will run out of spectrum by the end of the year. When that happens, users are dropped to slower speeds and the Web-browsing experience progressively worsens, resulting in unhappy customers.

In such a scenario, a service provider really can’t afford to add more 3G phones onto its network, especially a device that might be very popular like the Bold. This issue has actually served as a wake-up call for the entire industry to the point where there are now discussions happening about providers moving away from unlimited data plans. However, there seem to be some alternatives. RIM has a network operations center that formats Web content before it is forwarded to your BlackBerry. It seems to work as the typical BlackBerry user only uses about 20 MB per month (although that number will likely change once the 3G BlackBerry reaches the market in high volume). Other vendors are believed to be setting up similar operations as well, and sooner or later, Apple will have to follow suit, or carriers will effectively kill the attractiveness of their phones by charging tiers for data usage.

While the issue with iPhone and other 3G phones is currently over-the-air bandwidth, this problem will ultimately be resolved, and we’ll witness a second wave of 3G devices that will dump huge amounts of bandwidth onto the backhaul and core of the network. According to a report from Wireless Intelligence in Sept. 2008, nearly 55 million people worldwide were subscribing to mobile broadband services in 91 countries, and this number is expected to grow to more than 1 billion in the next four years. In addition, the very nature of mobile communications itself will complicate matters as traffic patterns will be unpredictable. Since it is uncertain where users will be when they request services, carriers will no longer be able to assume that they can constrain traffic or subscription services to a particular edge location, but rather have to design the network for peak load.

As the mobile market keeps evolving, the underlying wireline transport network will need to follow. As mobile broadband speeds increase and more content becomes available, more traffic will flow through the core of the network. As more users roam seamlessly on a ubiquitous network with their sleek and shiny web-enabled gadgets, networks will need to scale to handle more connections and security sessions.

And as the mobile market continues to deploy 3G and is already thinking about 4G and beyond, next-gen and next-next-gen cores will need to give bandwidth yet another boost. 100Gbs to the rescue!

Luc Ceuppens is senior director, head of product marketing, High-End Systems Business unit at Juniper Networks (JNPR).