Widespread deployment of voice over DSL services are not likely to happen until the second half of next year, according to the latest projections of TeleChoice Inc. (www.telechoice.com). Total VoDSL lines installed this year will reach just 40,000 because currently only small, regional DSL providers are offering the service. Line counts will grow as large national DSL companies, such as Covad Communications Co. (www.covad.com), NorthPoint Communications Group Inc. (www.northpointdsl.com) and Rhythms NetConnections Inc. (www.rhythms.net) move out of trials with their voice CLEC partners and other carriers, such as long-distance providers and ILECs, get in the game.
Beyond 2000, TeleChoice projections show that by the end of next year, about 100,000 lines will be in service. By 2004, more than 1.75 million VoDSL lines will have been sold.
However, as the line count grows, the number of telephone numbers provisioned per line will decrease. TeleChoice believes that in initial deployments, about nine telephone numbers will be served via each DSL line. But, by 2004, that number will drop to four numbers per line, as smaller businesses, telecommuters and residential customers begin to purchase VoDSL-based services.
"Voice over DSL is one of the key new value-added services that providers must begin to offer to differentiate themselves in an increasingly competitive market for DSL services. As the nationwide network buildouts of the past two years being to offer customers a choice of DSL providers, CLECs must begin to leverage these new technologies to offer a complete service portfolio to their customers," Adam Guglielmo, a TeleChoice DSL analyst, said in a statement.
TeleChoice reports that there are 15 companies in the U.S. and Canada currently offering VoDSL services, but these tend to be smaller, more regionally focused providers. By the third quarter of this year, TeleChoice predicts there will be more partnerships between data and voice CLECs that will begin to further deployment of the services nationwide. By the end of this year, interexchange carriers and incumbent telcos will also begin to offer their own VoDSL services, TeleChoice forecasts.
More details on TeleChoice's VoDSL projections can be found at the consultancy's xDSL.com website (www.xdsl.com).
