CEOs are supposed to project confidence, even to the point that everyone is aware of the spin. We have to wonder, then, whether Verizon Communications Inc.’s (VZ) Ivan Seidenberg is truly an optimist or whether he’s putting a good face on a situation most analysts say won’t turn out well for telecom.
Here’s what we mean. Today Seidenberg spoke at a muckety-muck conference in New York where he said he’s certain telecom will emerge unscathed from this financial crisis. But research firm Gartner just released a report showing enterprises will slow IT spending in 2009. Instead of its previously predicted 5.8 percent rise in spending, Gartner yesterday lowered that number to 2.3 percent.
“Developed economies, especially the United States and Western Europe, will be the worst affected, but emerging regions will not be immune,” said Peter Sondergaard, senior vice president at Gartner and global head of Research. “Europe will experience negative growth in 2009, the United States and Japan will be flat.”
Ovum issued a similar study in September. Telecom and tech companies are most likely to see reduced growth in the second half of 2008 through 2009, the company said. In a worst-case scenario, Ovum said, there will be “significant” slowdown in mobile sales and no growth in mobile capex between 2008 and 2009.
Seidenberg is banking on mobile revenue to help Verizon weather the financial storms.
